Predicting Climate Risks
In a revealing segment from The Jens Heitland Show, Brian Kilkelly offers a compelling analogy to describe the approach needed to navigate the complexities of climate risk. This insightful conversation, part of the episode "Navigating Climate Risk with Brian Kilkelly," underscores the necessity of broadening our perspective to effectively anticipate and manage the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.
A Broader Perspective on Risk Management
Brian compares the traditional focus on specific climate models to driving with a laser beam—focused but narrow, potentially missing unforeseen obstacles. He advocates for a "wide headlight" approach, emphasizing the importance of illuminating a broader path to foresee and prepare for all possible risks. This perspective encourages a more comprehensive assessment of potential climate scenarios, enabling better preparedness for the diverse impacts of climate change.
The Dilemma of Climate Projections
The discussion delves into the complexity of relying on climate projections, highlighting the significant time and effort invested by scientists in predicting the outcomes of various global temperature scenarios. Organizations often find themselves "placing bets" on these projections, making critical decisions based on specific models without certainty of their accuracy. This approach presents a substantial challenge, as the precise trajectory of climate change remains uncertain.
Rethinking Risk Assessment
Brian's insights shed light on the inherent limitations of traditional climate risk assessments. By depending on singular climate scenarios, such as a 2-degree or 4-degree world, organizations may inadvertently overlook the full spectrum of potential risks. This segment of the conversation calls for a shift in how we evaluate and respond to climate risk, advocating for a more inclusive and adaptable strategy that considers the wide range of possible futures.
A Call for Comprehensive Planning
This episode of The Jens Heitland Show with Brian Kilkelly serves as a crucial reminder of the need for a more holistic approach to climate risk management. By broadening our perspective and considering a wider array of potential scenarios, societies and organizations can better equip themselves to face the unpredictable nature of climate change. Brian's analogy not only highlights the shortcomings of current practices but also paves the way for more resilient and flexible planning.
Tune in to this insightful episode to explore how we can enhance our understanding and management of climate risk, ensuring that we are not caught off guard by the unexpected challenges that lie ahead on our collective journey towards sustainability.
Timing:
00:00 Introduction
00:00 The Road Ahead: A Climate Change Analogy
00:20 Predicting Climate Scenarios: The 2 Degree World
00:34 Exploring More Extreme Scenarios: The 4 Degree World
00:51 The Uncertainty of Climate Predictions
Guest Links:
Brian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kilkelly/
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Check out the full Episode here.
Transcript:
AI generated:
One analogy we use is, um, if you can imagine driving down a road and you've got a laser beam lighting up your way ahead, You've got a great line of sight for that butt band, but you're not gonna see the deer jumping out in front of you and getting you. Yeah. So, actually, what you want is a wide Headlight that illuminates the whole route forward so you can see all the risks.
What happens if we keep temperature below 2 degrees? This is what the scenario is gonna look like and they spend 5 years crunching the numbers. And they come out with data saying, in this location in the world, based on 2 degrees, this is how fast the wind will blow.
Yeah. And then they take a 4 degree world and do the same, and then I greater them 4 degree world. So most organizations will say, okay. We think it's gonna be 2 degrees, so we're gonna base our risk decisions on that.
We'll have a look at the kind of 4 degree world just in case it gets that bad, and we'll look at that as well. The challenge we have, we we don't we which one's right? You're kinda placing bets...